← Explore Capabilities
Dimension: Informedness

Forecast impacts

Ability to effectively and easily model complex systems, to help participants understand the potential impacts of different decisions.

MINIMAL
EXTREME
Maturity
Opportunity
Importance
Neglectedness
Transnational
Read about assessment rating system

How this is performed now...

Process organizers
Process organizers may draw on experts or use rudimentary tools to facilitate ‘if this, then that’ exercises.
Citizens' assembly organizers
Citizens’ assemblies organizers may be given draft recommendations after the penultimate day to produce analysis to help assembly members understand the possible barriers to implementation and impacts of decisions.

Related Product Gaps

Decision Impact Forecasting and Modeling

Urgent
Interface where participants input policy proposals and receive impact models, showing effects on both targeted and related outcomes with confidence intervals, assumptions, and interactive exploration capabilities.
AI/ML
Impact
Scale
Related Capabilities: Forecast impacts

Related Goals and Research Questions

Goal: Participants who are able to accurately understand the potential impacts of their decisions.

How can the impacts of interventions on complex systems be simulated quickly and accurately?

Urgent
Simulation & Modeling
Related Capability: Forecast impacts

What kinds of systems are appropriate for simulation?

Urgent
Simulation & Modeling Ethics & Philosophy
Related Capability: Forecast impacts

What is the Pareto frontier of speed, accuracy and easy-to-use interactability?

Urgent
AI/ML Communication & Media
Related Capability: Forecast impacts

Related Resources

Participatory Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Public Health in Long Beach, California

Many stakeholders (beyond just experts) collaboratively constructed system diagrams to map climate change impacts on public health in Long Beach, California. 
Experimental Practice
Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Gulrez Shah Azhar, Michele Abbott and Robert J. Lempert

Simulator (by Delib)

An online platform engaging citizens in deliberative decision-making by adjusting sliders to reflect priorities and observing consequences of different trade-offs. Used by over 100 organizations worldwide for budget allocation, climate response planning, policing priorities, transport planning, a...
Experimental Practice
Delib

Forio Public Policy simulator

Forio's public policy simulation solutions enable decision-makers to design policies, analyze outcomes across different scenarios, and build stakeholder consensus. The product helps organizations move beyond static spreadsheet analysis by allowing interactive exploration of how multiple policy in...
Product
Forio

Beamm.Brussels

Policy impact simulation tool for the Brussels Capital Region
Experimental Practice
Beamm

FiveThirtyNine LLM forecasting

An AI forecasting system built on GPT-4o generating probability predictions for complex geopolitical and political events through multi-step reasoning: searching for news, compiling facts, weighing arguments, and producing calibrated probabilities. Testing against 177 historical events showed 87....
Experimental Practice
FiveThirtyNine

PolicySynth

An open-source TypeScript library combining collective intelligence with AI to improve decision-making in governments and companies through multi-scale AI agent logic flows. Deploys specialized agents (Engineer, Insight, Evaluation) rather than single AI systems, analyzing complex problems, break...
Product
Citizens Foundation

The Time Machine: Future Scenario Generation Through Generative AI Toolson with Generative AI

Future scenario generation with Generative AI
Research
Jan Ferrer i Pico, Michelle Catta-Preta, Alex Trejo Omeñaca, Marc Vidal and Josep Maria Monguet i Fierro

Empowering Scenario Planning with Artificial Intelligence: A Perspective on Building Smart and Resilient Cities

City-level scenario development (Hao et al. 2024[)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095809924003813)
Research
Haiyan Hao, Yan Wang and Jiayu Chen

Gen

Gen is an open-source framework for probabilistic modeling and inference that automates complex probabilistic inference by providing building blocks for customized algorithms. The framework supports hybrid approaches combining neural networks, variational inference, sequential Monte Carlo, and MC...
Research
MIT Probabilistic Computing Project

Budget Citoyen

Budget simulator developed by civil society during debates around French budget allocation. Citizens could review public spending vs. sources of income and simulate budget allocation scenarios based on objective of bringing back public deficit to 5%.
Product